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December auto sales expected to point upward
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Written by Christina Rogers, Source: Detroit News   
Saturday, 01 January 2011
Automakers are ringing in the new year with strengthening sales and a brighter outlook.

After a turbulent couple years, the industry is starting to see some stability return: Sales are trending up and car shoppers are feeling more in the buying mood. December sales, to be reported this week, are expected to be no exception.

Analysts expect automakers will have finished off the year with sales above 12 million on an annualized basis for the third month in a row in December — a sign 2011 could be a more prosperous one for an industry battered by the recession.

Truck and SUV sales are expected to lead the way when auto companies report December sales on Tuesday, helping to give automaker bottom lines a healthy boost as they close out the year.

"Even with the possibility that sales in the third week of December may be affected by the recent snow storms, the strength of sales during the second week is expected to continue through the rest of the month," said Jeff Schuster, executive director for global forecasting at California-based J.D. Power & Associates.

The trends jive with an overarching uptick in retail spending with the U.S economy on the mend. Economists agree 2011 is likely to be a better years for the consumer market, but the outlook remains clouded by an uncertain real estate market and high unemployment.

J.D. Power estimates vehicle sales for December hit 1.1 million, up 14 percent from the year before. That translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 12.4 million for the month.

Retail sales also are expected to be up — another good sign for an industry that heavily depends on showroom sales to get top-dollar for their cars and trucks.

Those sales will be up nine percent in December compared to last year, and 26 percent from the month before, according to TrueCar.com, an online tracking firm.

Analysts expect total industry sales for 2010 to average out to about 11.5 million, up from about 10.5 million in 2009. U.S. auto sales topped 16 million as recently as 2007.

"Consumer confidence is rising and there is a lot of pent-up demand in the market," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends for TrueCar.com.

Meanwhile, sales to fleet operators such as rental car companies, are expected to be down to their lowest levels all year. TrueCar.com anticipates they'll make up 19 percent of total industry sales in December.

Truck and SUV sales are believed to have ended the year strong, with many businesses rushing to replace aging vehicles after putting off purchases during the recession.

Light truck sales, which includes pickups, SUVs, minivans and crossovers, have outpaced car sales for three months in a row starting in September.

And Edmunds.com expects truck sales to be up 14.9 percent for the year, and SUV sales up 21.3 percent.

Mid-sized car sales also will be up 7.8 percent over last year, while hybrid sales are expected to fall 8.1 percent and compact car sales up only 1.1 percent.
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